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为积极防范因建筑材料价格波动带来的工程造价风险，本研究通过Pearson相关性分析验证了建筑材料价格对单方造价的影响，基于自适应螺旋飞行麻雀搜索算法(ASFSSA)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)、自适应带宽核密度估计(ABKDE)的耦合预测模型对建筑工程单方造价进行预测，验证建筑材料价格波动对单方造价的影响，并基于自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)提出动态阈值预警系统，对建筑材料价格异常波动进行实时监测与预警，进一步创新性地提出了基于极端价格差的风险缓冲机制。结果表明：ASFSSA-LSSVM-ABKDE预测模型的预测值与真实值接近，均方误差、均方根误差与残差标准差分别为0.134、0.367和0.371,模型预测精度高、预警灵敏、缓冲机制合理。
Abstract：In order to actively prevent the project cost risk caused by the price fluctuation of building materials, this study verifies the influence of building materials price on the unilateral cost through Pearson correlation analysis. Based on the coupling prediction model of adaptive spiral flying sparrow search algorithm(ASFSSA), least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) and adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation(ABKDE), the unilateral cost of construction projects is predicted to verify the influence of material price fluctuation on the cost. Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA), a dynamic threshold early warning system is proposed to monitor and warn the abnormal fluctuation of building material prices in real time, and a risk buffer mechanism based on extreme price difference is further innovatively proposed. The results show that the predicted value of the ASFSSA-LSSVM-ABKDE prediction model is close to the real value, and the mean square error, root mean square error and residual standard deviation are 0.134,0.367 and 0.371, respectively. The model has high prediction accuracy, sensitive early warning and reasonable buffering mechanism.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13880/j.cnki.65-1174/n.2025.21.013
中图分类号:TU723.3
引用信息:
[1]赵立伟,陆红梅,从明智,等.基于ASFSSA-LSSVM-ABKDE的建筑材料价格波动风险分析与动态管控方法研究[J].石河子大学学报(自然科学版),2025,43(05):560-568.DOI:10.13880/j.cnki.65-1174/n.2025.21.013.
基金信息:
新疆生产建设兵团重点领域科技攻关计划项目(2021AB027)